Research that tells you when it's just luck.
Picks are tested against random stocks; score studies must hold up on later, unseen data. Every result is labelled verified, verified (no edge), or failed, and we publish the failures too.
Illustration only. Not live data: no picks, prices, positions or names.
License tested research data
Research data where each result carries its label (verified, verified (no edge), or failed), plus the log of what didn't work.
- A label on every result
- Research log, including failures
- Sample available on request
Join the research waitlist
A ranked research shortlist after each close, every evening, with an honest label on every result.
- Shortlist after each close, every evening
- A label on every result
- Research log, failures included
Three steps, every evening.
Scan
After each close, every evening, we run a nightly scan of nearly 4,000 US-listed stocks and ETFs and build the research shortlist.
Test
Picks are tested against random stocks. Score studies must hold up on later, unseen data.
Label
Every result is labelled verified, verified (no edge), or failed / retracted. Nothing is hidden.
of actively managed U.S. large-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500 over the 20 years ended June 30, 2026.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, SPIVA® U.S. Mid-Year 2026 Scorecard (published September 17, 2026). https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/
If most professionals can't tell skill from luck, a pick should have to beat a random stock before you trust it, and a score study should hold up on later, unseen data.
And when an idea fails, it goes in the research log, not in the bin.
Who's behind it
Watch: SageFusion overview with Michael Kelly (3:30).
Michael Kelly
Michael Kelly is the founder of Investment Science and SageFusion and the author of The Wealth Almanac, a #1 Amazon Best Seller in Wealth Management, Economic History and Investing Portfolio Management (Kindle, October 2025). He has more than a decade in banking and financial technology, with roles at Citigroup, Barclays, UBS, and Mizuho Securities, and is an adjunct professor at Hofstra University.
LinkedIn
Dr. Andrew Weinbach
Dr. Andrew Weinbach is a distinguished professor of economics with extensive experience in both academia and business. Currently a Professor at Coastal Carolina University, he has held various academic positions and business consultancy roles. Dr. Weinbach holds a PhD in Applied Economics from Clemson University. He applies his expertise in advanced probability modeling for sports betting to financial markets.
LinkedIn
Read the book behind the method
The Wealth Almanac: Historical Insights for Contemporary Fortune, by Michael Kelly.
See the research, failures included.
Pick the door that fits.
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