Research built by people who publish their failures.
SageFusion is the research product of Investment Science LLC in New York. Every evening we test ideas across stocks, ETFs, options, futures, crypto and spot FX, put an honest label on every result, and keep the ideas that failed in the log.
What we test, and what we found.
Does copying members of Congress after their trades are disclosed help?
No. Trades followed after the filing became public did not do better than comparable stocks.
See the studyAre normal-curve simulations good enough to estimate the odds of a move?
No. Simulations that keep the real, fat-tailed behavior of prices gave better-calibrated odds.
See the studyMachine-learning stock rankings (walk-forward test)
Retracted. An early version let future data leak into the test. It stays in the log with the reason.
See the studyScan, test, label. Failures kept.
A nightly scan
After each close, every evening, a nightly scan of nearly 4,000 US-listed stocks and ETFs builds a research shortlist. Studies cover stocks, ETFs, options, futures, crypto and spot FX.
A fair comparison
Nightly picks and breakout setups are compared with a random stock on the same night. Score studies built on 2005 to 2015 data must hold up on 2016 to 2026.
Honest labels
Every result is labelled verified, verified (no edge), or failed / retracted. Withdrawn studies stay in the log with the reason.
of actively managed U.S. large-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500 over the 20 years ended June 30, 2026.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, SPIVA® U.S. Mid-Year 2026 Scorecard (published September 17, 2026). https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/
If most professionals can't tell skill from luck, a pick should have to beat a random stock before you trust it, and a score study should hold up on later, unseen data.
And when an idea fails, it goes in the research log, not in the bin.
Who builds SageFusion
A markets technologist and an economist, working on one question: is a result real, or is it luck?
Watch: SageFusion overview with Michael Kelly (3:30).
Michael Kelly
Michael Kelly is the founder of Investment Science and SageFusion, and the author of The Wealth Almanac, a #1 Amazon Best Seller in Wealth Management, Economic History and Investing Portfolio Management (Kindle, October 2025). He has more than a decade in banking and financial technology, with roles at Citigroup, Barclays, UBS, and Mizuho Securities. He is an adjunct professor at Hofstra University's Frank G. Zarb School of Business, and holds a Stonier Diploma from the ABA Stonier Graduate School of Banking and a Wharton Leadership Certificate.
Dr. Andrew Weinbach
Dr. Andrew Weinbach is a professor of economics at Coastal Carolina University with experience in academia and business consulting. He holds a PhD in Applied Economics from Clemson University. His research covers sports, financial and behavioral economics, with published papers on market efficiency and betting behavior. He applies probability modeling from sports betting markets to financial markets.
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